2024 elections: will the BJP winning this election achieve unprecedented governance stability in India

Sujoy Bhatia
Chandhiok and Mahajan, New Delhi
sujoy.bhatia@chandhiok.com

Shivani Pathak
Chandhiok and Mahajan, New Delhi
shivani.pathak@chandhiok.com

Snapshot of India’s political history

India, the world’s largest democracy and home to a population of around 1.42 billion people (with roughly 970 million registered voters), kicked off its general election with voters rallying to polling booths from April to June 2024.

While India’s political history and the reign of different political parties is a story in and of itself, the present bipolarity in Indian politics is evident with two parties, namely the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress (INC) dominating and shaping national politics. Owing to its presence and contributions during the British colonial era, the INC was influential (notably, the first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, and the first woman prime minister, Indira Gandhi, both came from the INC) and continued to be the most influential and powerful party till late 1980s.

During the INC’s regime, India witnessed an unstable and unsettling time in respect of leadership – this could be due to the Indo-Pakistan war of 1965, seriatim declaration of national emergencies and the subsequent assassination of the then incumbent prime minister Indira Gandhi. Separately, allegations of election malpractice and the Bofors scandal which implicated politicians of the INC including the then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi (Indira Gandhi’s son), dealt a fatal blow to the confidence which the voters had in the INC.

The fading popularity of the INC was met with the rise of the BJP in India. It is to be noted that the BJP came into power before 2014 – the BJP’s term prior to 2014 was intermittent with the INC and coalition governments coming into power from time to time. However, post-2014, the BJP has come across as a steady political party primarily due to the leadership of Narendra Modi (the incumbent prime minister of India and also the prime minister candidate for 2024).

Economic aims of the BJP’s rule in India

Aim to end corruption and terrorism in Kashmir through Kashmir’s integration

During the last decade, the BJP Government has proactively brought legal reforms in India. Kashmir, one of the most conflicted regions of India, and crucial in respect of both national and international politics, saw what can arguably be said to be one of the most radical changes implemented by the BJP – abrogation of Article 370 from the Constitution of India through the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act 2019, which revokes the autonomy and special status of Jammu and Kashmir in India. This is a sensitive topic, linked to the history of Kashmir post-independence. However, the abrogation was considered necessary by the BJP to ensure development and democracy in Kashmir and bolster the sovereignty of India through integration.

Abrogation of Article 370 was seen as one of the most audacious moves by the BJP Government owing to the historical autonomous status of Kashmir. That said, the abrogation now stands as a testament of how the BJP Government is radical and prompt in pushing its agenda.

BJP released its manifesto called ‘Modi ki Guarantee’ prior to the 2024 elections (the ‘Modi Manifesto’). As per the Modi Manifesto, the BJP aims to draw and adopt a Uniform Civil Code (UCC) in its next term – a challenging enforcement considering India is a secular state with approximately a Muslim population of 15 per cent following their personal laws. Apart from Muslims, tribal communities and Christians also follow their personal laws in relation to marriage and succession. While the UCC is being viewed by some groups as a step towards national integration by treating Indian citizens under a common legal umbrella, there is a strong push back from minority groups that the UCC will be an infringement of the right to practice their personal laws freely and an imposition of the majority’s culture on the minorities, thus undermining their cultural heritage. It remains to be seen as to how the UCC would be structured, but given how BJP achieved Kashmir’s integration, it does look it is a question of ‘when’, and not ‘if’.

Aim to simplify legislation and attain economic stability through legal reforms

In addition to the above, the BJP Government also enacted the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita 2023 (the ‘BNS 2023’) which replaced the Indian Penal Code – a legislation dating back to 1860. The BNS 2023 introduced a section on ‘terrorist act’ – any act which threatens the economic security of India and causes or is likely to cause damage to the monetary stability of India has been classified as a ‘terrorist act’ and is liable for punishment. Separately, a definition of ‘economic offence’ has also been included and includes criminal breach of trust, forgery, counterfeiting of currency-notes and mass-market fraud.

It is apparent that the BJP Government is increasing accountability for economic offences in India to ensure that its economic reforms are not hindered by corruption/economic offences. While the broadly defined ‘economic offence’ and ‘terrorist act’ does raise concerns around proper and fair implementation, the introduction of BNS 2023 may be viewed as an attempt to fight corruption in India.

In addition, in the last decade, the BJP has also revamped India’s tax system and laws – one such reform being the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) on 1 July 2017. The BJP Government played a key role in pushing the GST’s implementation, which required extensive legislative changes at both central and state level. The BJP Government has also introduced legal reforms to simplify tax compliance, broadening the tax base, reducing tax evasion and reduction in corporate tax rates.

Another landmark reform in the corporate and banking sector has been the introduction of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) in 2016 – a unified framework and time bound process for ensuring a swift resolution to insolvency cases in India whilst protecting the rights of the creditors. The IBC has shown remarkable success and as reported by the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India, from 2016 to 31 March 2024, the National Company Law Tribunal has approved 947 insolvency resolution plans.

Notably, India’s ranking in the World Bank’s Doing Business Report 2020 has risen from 142 in 2014 to 63 (out of 190 countries) in 2019. The Modi Manifesto, drawing upon its past term, has also expressed BJP’s commitment to completely revamp India’s economic and commercial legislations to suit India’s economic needs.

Aim to build an investor friendly India and boost employment

BJP claims that it is shaping India to soon become world’s third largest economy – with the Government bolstering in-house manufacturing capabilities through the China +1 strategy. Taking into consideration manufacturing related incentives offered by BJP (such as production-linked incentives), smartphone giants Apple and Samsung have boosted their manufacturing capabilities in India. Owing to supply-chain disruptions caused by various factors including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Covid-19 pandemic, India has emerged as an investment hotspot.

Boom in investment is generally coupled with generation of employment. As per the Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections, constituted by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, youth in the age group of 15–29 years comprise 27.2 per cent of India’s population for 2021. Although recently criticised by the opposition parties for the increasing unemployment rate in India (citing reports from International Labour Organisation), the BJP, in the Modi Manifesto, has re-iterated its promise to enhance employment with programmes such as ‘Make in India’ and its unprecedented investment in infrastructure.

As compared to the gross domestic product (GDP) being US$2tn in 2014 (the Indian economy was the 10th largest in the world) when the BJP came into power in India, the Indian economy has become the fifth largest economy in the world, with its GDP reaching US$3.75tn. This showcases the BJP’s capabilities as a government and the reason why the Indian population is trusting the BJP to pump India’s economy to new heights in terms of economy and consequently, deliver on its promises regarding employment.

Foreign policies designed to protect India’s interest

In the recent past, tensions and conflicts have arisen around the world, including between Russia and Ukraine and Israel and Palestine. Such tensions usually have an impact on geo-politics and the economy. The BJP is being lauded for its stance on diplomatic and foreign relations – with the world in a state of conflict, India stood strong with negligible impact on its economy. The BJP has is seen as an assertive and aggressive ruling party prioritising India and Indians which arguably has built a sense of security and nationalism amongst the Indian population.

Our two cents

The BJP Government, prioritising its agendas, has delivered on policies which it considers crucial for winning public confidence (and votes). Undeniably, there are criticisms which highlight the flaws in BJP’s modus operandi amidst attempts at leaning towards Hinduist nationalism. However, owing to BJP’s strong leadership and having been able to identify its voters’ interest and acting accordingly, the BJP seems to have retained its popularity amongst its supporters and voters.

Long-term political stability helps any government in achieving its goals for a country by taking bold decisions – bold decisions are usually implemented through majority strength in the legislature. With the BJP Government, one can be sure of two things – a populist government and a focus on economic development and reforms.